Today:
 

Kazakh Zerno - News and analysis of cereals

Kazakh Zerno - News and analysis of cereals
  rus /eng

 
  News




Subscribe to the news
grain Price indexes
Price indexes
Grain Statistics
Statistics
Grain Elevators
Elevators
Export prices of cereals and flour in dollars per ton, including VAT 0% (Franco-border) on 14.11.2017 PDF Print E-mail

Station name

wheat 3 class, gluten

wheat 4 class

wheat 5 class

barley

flour

terms of supply

23-24%

27-30%

-

2 class

extra class

first-rate

second-rate

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Petropavlovsk (South-Ural Railway)

131-135

136-141

101-106

-

140-145

256-261

232-236

207-212

DAP

Sary-agash

154-159

160-165

134-139

-

163-168

267-272

243-248

219-224

DAP

Lugovaya

148-153

155-160

119-124

-

159-164

264-269

240-245

215-220

DAP

Tobol

140-145

146-151

112-117

-

152-157

265-270

237-242

214-219

DAP

port of Aktau

157-162

164-169

138-142

-

170-175

282-286

257-262

234-239

FOB

Bekabad

170-175

177-182

140-145

-

182-187

292-296

267-272

244-249

СРТ

Hajraton

214-219

223-228

186-191

-

228-234

325-330

303-308

278-283

СРТ

Kudukli

225-230

230-235

194-199

-

233-238

332-337

308-313

284-288

СРТ

Sarahs

193-198

206-200

170-175

-

190-195

296-301

270-275

266-271

DAP

Kazakhstan has not learned to trade for 20 years

Новость на Казах-зерно:

Kazakhstan has harvested a good harvest of grain, however, this does not mean anything. It's high time to add to the saying of farmers "Harvest is not the one that is in the fields, but the one that is in the bins," we explain that it is better - when the bins belong to the buyer. After all, in the emerging conditions, the pledge of financial well-being for the peasants is not production, but marketing. Both world and domestic market of Kazakhstan reacted to the record wheat harvest in Russia by price reduction. In addition, the chronic illness for our country has become aggravated - it is difficult to transport huge volumes of grain to sea ports. In such a situation it is not easy to sell your crop and get your profit. So, to produce something is only half the battle. The main thing is to find a buyer, and then to ensure delivery as well. Otherwise, there is a risk that the harvest will either rot in the warehouse or someone will take it for a penny, the expert of the IA “Kazakh-Zerno” notes.

Many farmers lack knowledge and experience in organizing logistic activities. As for decades they lived in a situation where only one thing was needed - to grow and harvest. Now the peasant must become a merchant. But not everyone can master the new business, and the state, it seems, does not intend to help. Despite numerous statements about the support of exporters and the creation of state structures designed to facilitate domestic producers entering the foreign market, many farmers do not see any real help. And for all requests to be directed and shown how to win its niche, they receive only rejections. They say, "learn by yourself." The question is, what was the use of all the beautiful words and waste of budget funds for inefficient structures for promoting Kazakhstani goods abroad?

In addition, the main issues of export support can be solved only at the interstate level. But the government often preserves aloofness from them. Suffice it to recall the fact that a few years ago Kazakhstan rose to the first place in the world in terms of flour exports. However, when neighboring states imposed protective duties on Kazakhstani flour, there was no response from our government. As a result, market contraction and damage for one of the few competitive sectors of the Kazakh economy.

The downside of this situation is that the agricultural sector of Kazakhstan that is in dire need of financial investments is losing its relish in the eyes of potential investors. "And how will we export and sell our crop?" - the first question that they ask, studying the prospects for investment in agriculture in our country. And they do not find an answer. In addition, there are also administrative barriers to the implementation of investment projects: businessmen complain that the issue of easing the visa regime for entry to Kazakhstan has still not been resolved. Documents are issued for several months, although everyone knows the saying "time is money". And they are sailing past the Kazakhstani agricultural sector so far.

World market

After September increase in wheat quotations, in October they lost their positions in different dynamics. American wheat has the greatest negative volatility, and the lowest belonged to the French. In October, the market was more exposed to factors related to the September IGC forecasts, in which wheat production was increased by 6 million tons, from 742 to 748 million tons. This brought the forecasts of the volume of the new world wheat crop to the record indicators of the previous season of 754 million tons.

For the current 2017-18 season, grain production has been increased by 20 million tons, from 2,049 to 2,069 million tons, the level of trade was risen from 354 to 358 million tons, and consumption from 2,089 to 2,096 million tons. The carryover stocks of the season were increased by 12 million tons, from 485 to 497 million tons.

These positive forecasts affected the market in the first half of October in a depressing manner.

The USDA outlook further exacerbated the decadent sentiments on the market, as it sharply by 6.34 million tons) raised the estimate of the world wheat harvest compared to September. Gross harvest in the world is now slightly different from last year's - 751.2 million tons this year against 754.15 million tons a year ago, and closing stocks will grow to a record 268.1 million tons. In the last report there were 263.1 million tons, and last season - 256.58 million tons.

In October, the dollar rose in relation to pound and euro, reducing the value of European wheat in the American equivalent.

Expert forecasts

On October 26, the International Grains Council (IGC) published the regular report on the world balance of grain, wheat, corn, soybeans and rice for the 2017-18 season. The level of world production was again raised, but the forecast for consumption increased even more. The carryover stocks of the season have grown, but have not exceeded the level of the last season. Separately for wheat the situation is somewhat different. Production and trade level remained at the same level, consumption declined, and closing stocks increased. The results of the new forecast will be fully appreciated by the market participants in November.

Some points of the world grain balance have been specified for the past 2016-17 MY. Grain production in October did not change, but earlier it was raised from 2,128 million to 2,133 million tons, the level of trade remained the same - 352 million tons, consumption increased from 2,088 to 2,091 million tons. The closing stocks were reduced by 2 million tons, from 525 to 523 million tons.

For the current 2017-18 season, forecasts are raised for all balance sheet items, except for closing stocks. Grain production increased by 6 million tons, from 2,069 to 2,075 million tons, the level of trade rose from 358 to 359 million tons, and consumption from 2,096 to 2,104 million tons. The closing stocks of the season are reduced by 4 million tons, from 497 to 493 million tons.

According to the report, in the new season that has started since July 1, the world grain harvest will be 58 million tons lower than last year, the level of trade will be 7 million tons higher, consumption - by 13 million tons, and the closing stocks will decrease by 30 million tons million tons.

IGC forecasts for wheat for the 2016-17 MYdid not change in October. The production of wheat remained the same - 754 million tons. The volume of trade previously rose by 1 million tons, from 175 to 176 million tons, and the level of consumption remained unchanged - 736 million tons. As a result of all the changes and adjustments, the closing stocks in October remained at the level of 242 million tons.

For the 2017-18 MY, the forecast for wheat production in October was 746 million tons, while trade indicators rose from 172 to 174 million tons, and consumption decreased from 742 to 741 million tons. But the carryover stocks rose from 248 to 249 million tons.

Some positions have been specified for corn for the 2016-17 MY. Production – 1,079 million tons, the level of trade - 138 million tons, and consumption increased from 1,051 to 1,054 million tons. The carryover stocks fell by 2 million tons, from 237 to 235 million tons.

For the 2017-18 season, the IGC forecast for corn is the following: production increased from 1,029 to 1,034 million tons, trade level - from 148 to 149 million tons, consumption increased significantly from 1,058 to 1,067 million tons, and closing stocks fell from 208 to 203 million tons.

Price dynamics

Let us recall, from September 1 to September 29 wheat quotations in London grew by 4.7 dollars per ton, or 2.5%, in Paris at $ 14 per ton, or 7.7%, and in Chicago by $ 3.5, or by 2.2%. Corn in the US for the period has remained the same, and soybeans has grown by 3 dollars per ton, or by 0.9%. Rapeseed in Paris fell by 1.25 euros per ton, or by 0.3%, and corn by 4.5 euros per ton, or by 2.8%.

October began with a decline in positions for wheat quotations in the US and France. From September 29 to October 6, their values fell almost in equal measure. Quotes in Britain have changed within half a percentage point with the rise, despite the significant growth of the dollar to the pound for the period. In relation to the euro, the US dollar, on the contrary, remained the same.

The week from October 6 to October 13 again became a failure for the quotations of wheat in the US and France, but to a lesser extent than the previous week. British wheat which previously rose this time also declined. In the foreign exchange market, for the period, the dollar receded from a position to the pound and euro, supporting European wheat in its equivalent.

In mid-October, from October 13 to October 20, all quotations of agricultural crops in the US and Europe, namely wheat, corn, soybean and rapeseed dropped without exception in different measure. Wheat in the US dropped the most, and last week its fall was, on the contrary, minimal. The American corn and soybean turned down, canola and corn in Europe continued to fall. Over the period, the dollar strengthened to the euro and pound, reducing the value of European wheat in its equivalent.

In the third decade of October, wheat quotations on world markets strengthened positions after the fall of their values the day before, but in parvo. The greatest growth was in France, and in the US and Britain it was only within a fraction of a percent. The exchange rate from October 20 to October 27 significantly affected pricing. By the end of the period, the dollar appreciably skyrocketed in relation to the euro and pound and eventually grew to these currencies, lowering the European wheat's value of its equivalent. Corn and rapeseed rose in the US and Europe, and soybean slightly decreased.

On Friday, October 27, wheat quotations in the US and Europe went to different directions. In the Old World, they corrected positions, and across the Atlantic declined within a percent. By the end of the week in the foreign exchange market, the dollar soared to the pound as sharply as it fell the day before. And in relation to the euro, it rose in an even greater proportion. This significantly affected the position of European wheat in the American equivalent. In London, wheat quotations rose by 1%, in Paris by 0.3%, and in Chicago decreased by 0.7%. Corn in the US fell by 0.2%, and soybean grew by 0.4%. Rapesed and corn in Paris are rising.

On October 27, in the US on the Chicago Stock Exchange (SBOT), wheat contracts dropped from 4.3025 to 4.2725 $ / bushel or by 0.7% ($ 157 per ton). Corn fell from 3.495 to 3.4875 $ / bushel or 0.2% ($ 137 per ton). Soybeans increased from 9.8225 to 9.865 $ / bushel or by 0.4% ($ 362.4 per ton).

In Europe, on October 27, at the LIFFE Stock Exchange in London, wheat contracts increased from 138 to 139.4 pounds per ton or by 1% ($ 184.3). At the MATIF Exchange, on October 27, contracts for delivery in December rose from 162.25 to 162.75 euros per ton or by 0.3% ($ 192.2). Contracts for delivery in March rose from 167.5 to 168.25 euros per ton or by 0.4% ($ 198.7).

On the Stock exchange in Paris, on October 27, rapeseed contracts for the delivery in November rose from 368.5 to 370.25 euros or 437.2 $ / ton, corn contracts for the delivery in November rose from 150.75 to 151.5 euros per ton or 178.9 $ / ton.

In total, from September 29 to October 27, wheat quotations in London fell by $ 5.9 per ton, or by 3.1%, in Paris by $ 3.7 per ton, or by 1.9%, and in Chicago by 7, 7 dollars, or by 4.7%. Corn in the US fell by $ 2.6 per ton, or 1.9%, and soybeans increased by $ 8.6 per ton, or 3%. Rapeseed in Paris rose by 1.75 euros per ton, or 0.5%, while corn fell 4 euros per ton, or 2.6%.

FOB cash market

For October, from September 29 to October 27, the dynamics of wheat on FOB basis in US ports was different. Wheat SRW, wheat HRW slightly increased, high-protein grain crop increased in higher dynamics. French wheat fell over the period, and the Russian wheat on the contrary grew with a price advantage of $ 2 to the French grain. French barley descended, and the Russian remained in place. Corn in the US rose. American soybean has grown, and Argentinian has decreased.

From September 29 to October 27, soft wheat SRW on FOB basis from ports in the US increased by $ 1, from $ 189 to $ 190 per ton. Wheat HRW with a protein content of 11% rose by 1 dollar, from 199 to 200 dollars per ton. High-protein wheat - 14% increased by 12 dollars, from 286 to 298 dollars per ton. Corn in US ports increased by $2, from 156.5 to 158.5 dollars per ton.

French wheat in the port of Rouen, from September 29 to October 27, fell by $3, from 194 to 191 dollars per ton. Barley fell by $4, from 189 to 185 dollars per ton. Russian wheat in the Black Sea ports rose by $10, from $ 183 to $ 193 per ton. Russian barley on the basis of the Black Sea remained at the level of $ 189 per ton by October 27, while Russian corn was $ 165 per ton.

Soybeans from the USA on FOB basis rose from 374 to 375 dollars per ton. In Argentina, soybeans sank from 374 to 372 US dollars per ton.

Russia

In October, a record grain harvest in Russia caused an excess supply of grain in the market. This caused considerable difficulties in its distribution. Extremely high yields revealed a lot of problems in the work of agricultural producers, exporters and traders, representatives of controlling bodies, all participants of the grain market. In this situation, export still remains the main channel of sales for producers, as the domestic consumer market is limited, and there are not enough processing and storage capacities for such amount of grain.

Harvesting campaign

The harvesting campaign in Russia is coming to an end. The harvest has already become a record, despite the fact that not all the harvesting areas have been threshed yet. The small part of the areas in the south and in the center of Russia, mainly late grain crops - corn, is still not harvested. Some of the fields need to be threshed in the Volga and Siberian federal districts, and most of all in the North-West and Far Eastern districts.

According to the recent reports of the administrative bodies of the AIC of the constituent territories of the Russian Federation, as of November 1, grain and leguminous crops were threshed from the area of ​​45.3 million hectares, or 96.3% of the harvesting area (in 2016, 44.9 million ha). About 135.5 million tons of grain were harvested (in 2016 - 119.8 million tons), with a yield of 29.9 quintals/ ha (in 2016 - 26.7 quintals / ha).

Grain crops

Winter and spring wheat is threshed on the area of 27.3 million hectares, or 99% of the harvesting area (in 2016 - 27.2 million hectares) nationwide. About 87.9 million tons of grain were harvested (in 2016 - 75.8 million tons), with a yield of 32.2 quintals per hectare (in 2016 - 27.9 quintals / ha). Barley winter and spring is threshed on the area of 7.7 million hectares, or 97.5% of the harvesting area (in 2016 - 8.1 million hectares). About 21.5 million tons were harvested (in 2016 - 19.0 million tons), with a yield of 27.9 quintals / ha (in 2016 - 23.5 quintals / ha).

Grain maize is threshed on the area of 1.8 million hectares, or 61.7% of the harvesting area (in 2016 - 1.7 million hectares). About 8.7 million tons were threshed (9.7 million tons in 2016), with a yield of 48.7 quintals per hectare (in 2016 - 56.0 quintals / ha). The rice is threshed on the area of 167.4 thousand hectares, or 89.9% to the sown area (in 2016 – 186.7 thousand hectares). About 1.1 million tons have been threshed (in 1.2 million tons in 2016), with yields of 65.1 quintals / hectare (in 2016 - 66.0 quintals / ha).

Oilseeds

Sunflower for food purposes is threshed on the area of ​​5.3 million hectares, or 67.3% of the harvesting area (in 2016 - 6.1 million hectares). About 8.1 million tons were harvested (in 2016 - 9.8 million tons), with a yield of 15.4 q/ha (in 2016, 15.9 q/ha). Soybeans is threshed on the area of ​​2.1 million hectares, or 79.9% of the harvesting area (in 2016 - 1.8 million hectares). About 3.2 million tons were harvested (in 2016 - .9 million tons), with a yield of 15.4 q/ ha (in 2016 – 15.6 q / ha). Rapeseed is threshed on the area of ​​892.9 thousand hectares, or 90.6% to the harvesting area (in 2016 - 888.8 thousand hectares). About 1.5 million tons were harvested (in 1.16 million tons in 2016), with a yield of 17.3 quintals per hectare (in 2016, 12.1 quintals per hectare). Common flax is rippled on the area of ​​40.9 thousand hectares, or 89.5% of the sown acreage (in 2016 - 45.2 thousand hectares).

Winter crops were sown on the area of ​​16.7 million hectares, or 96% of the forecasted area (in 2016 - 16.9 million hectares).

Expert Forecasts

October grain forecast of the experts of the International Grains Council (IGC) of October 26 for Russia for the 2017-18 season has changed insignificantly. The beginning stocks and the total annual grain balance decreased, consumption and closing stocks increased, but exports fell.

For the past 2016-17 season, the indicators of the grain report are generally slightly adjusted. With opening stocks of 7.3 million tons, 114.2 million tons were produced, and 0.7 million tons were imported. The total seasonal balance of grain amounted to 122.2 million tons, of which 72.6 million tons will be spent for food purposes, forage and industrial needs (72.7 in the previous report). Exports at the end of the season amounted to 36.5 million tons (36.3), and the carryover stocks of grain decreased from 13.3 to 13.1 million tons.

For the 2017-18 MY, the opening stocks were reduced from 13.3 to 13.1 million tons, the production forecast did not change, and previously it was raised from 124.5 to 126.5 million tons of grain, imports remained at the level of 0.5 million tons. The annual balance sheet was reduced from 140.3 to 140.2 million tons, and domestic consumption increased from 76 to 76.1 million tons, exports were slightly reduced from 42.4 to 42 million tons. The carryover stocks have been raised from 22 to 22.1 million tons.

Separately for wheat for the 2016-17 season, the forecast data remained the same. Opening stocks - 5.7 million tons, production - 72.5 million tons, imports decreased from 0.4 to 0.3 million tons. The wheat balance is 78.5 million tons, consumption is 40.2 million tons, exports are 27.8 million tons, and the closing stocks are 10.5 million tons.

For the current 2017-18 season, the October forecast for wheat did not change, and the previous forecast was as follows: the opening stock did not change - 10.5 million tons, production rose from 80 to 82 million tons, imports did not change - 0.3 million tons. Wheat balance increased from 90.9 to 92.9 million tons, and consumption from 42.2 to 43.2 million tons. Exports remained the same - 32.1 million tons. The carryover stocks increased from 16.5 to 17.5 million tons.

Price situation

In October, a record grain harvest in Russia caused an excess supply of grain in the market, which was supposed to collapse prices. But the market stood, and October passed with minimal losses. Prices have significantly collapsed even earlier in anticipation of big harvest. In August, the Russian grain market saw a significant reduction in prices, dropping grain crops far beyond 10% of the original cost with some exceptions. Almost the whole of September the Russian grain market was moving along the falling dynamics and rested in the bottom only at the end of the period at a fairly low level. This was reflected in a slight increase in prices in the wheat segment in the second half of September.

In October, the market was relatively stable, but the high supply of grain did not allow it to grow to the level desired by farmers. Further price collapse, according to experts and market observers, is hampered by growing grain exports in October.

Export of grain in October beat records. Minimum, within a percent to both sides, changed all wheat and barley. Wheat of 3 class increased, and 4 class remained at the same level. Barley sank to a lesser extent, and feed wheat to a greater extent. Food rye significantly reduced the dynamics of the fall, and the leader of the decline again was corn. In the foreign exchange market, the dollar strengthened in October, but it was insufficiently convincing. Therefore, the ruble and dollar price dynamics of Russian cereals is almost the same.

The first October week gave a contradictory result on the dynamics of grain crops. From September 29 to October 6, they moved in different directions. Wheat of 3 class, which by the end of September stopped to decline with a slight increase, further strengthened its position. Together with it, food rye gave a positive but insignificant price result. Last week it declined. Other crops have fallen to a degree. Wheat of a lower class and barley fell within 5-15 rubles. But corn fell the most, cutting the price range with barley. Last week, it was also the leader of the fall. In the foreign exchange market, the ruble grew over the period to the dollar, strengthening its positions in its equivalent.

October in Russia continued with strengthening of the wheat segment of grain. The start of this trend was given by wheat of 3 class at the end of September. In early October, this grain increased again, and in the period from October 6 to October 13, it fixed its growth. At the same time, wheat of a lower class grows, but in a lesser dynamic, and its forage part stops falling. Food rye, which started October from the growth, fell back to its previous positions, but the barley adjusted its position a little. Corn continues to decline, but not at such a dizzying pace as before, cutting the price range with barley. In the foreign exchange market, at the beginning of the period, the dollar at first grew in relation to the ruble, but then it also fell sharply below the level of the beginning of the week, and Russian wheat grew in American par value in slightly higher dynamics.

After a slight increase in the first half of October, prices for cereals in Russia from October 13 to October 20 again began to decrease in different dynamics depending on their varieties. In the wheat segment, 3 class, which grew in the previous couple of weeks, slightly decreased, while 4 class slowed down the movement. But feed wheat slipped much deeper. Food rye and corn have strengthened the downward movement, and barley, which had previously strengthened, now surrendered its position. The decrease in cereals was facilitated by a small, but still growth of the ruble in relation to the dollar over the period. Because of this, wheat of 3 and 4 classes in the American equivalent has strengthened somewhat. But this is not the main thing in the returning trend of decline.

From October 20 to 27, grain crops in Russia weakened the decline. Wheat of the 3 class did not change its values, and the wheat od a lower class fell slightly. The food rye and corn lost the former dynamics of falling, and barley fell in the same pace. In the dollar equivalent, the grain declined in a larger proportion - by a dollar or more taking into account different crops. Over the period from October 20 to October 27, the dollar rose to the ruble from 57.5706 to 57.7643 rubles per dollar, which made Russian grain even lighter at its nominal value.

In total, from September 29 to October 27, in Russia, wheat of 3 class rose by 65 rubles per ton, or by 0.8%, wheat of 4 class for the whole period did not change, and feed wheat dropped by 50 rubles per ton, or by 0 ,9%. Food rye fell by 75 rubles per ton, or by 1.4%, barley - by 25 rubles per ton, or by 0.4%, and corn - by 295 rubles per ton, or by 4.4%.

From September 29 to October 27, in the American equivalent, wheat of 3 class increased by $1, or by 0.7%, wheat of 4 class decreased by $ 0.2 per ton, or by 0.2%, feed wheat by $ 1 per ton, or by 1%. Food rye fell by 1.4 dollars per ton, or by 1.5%, barley - by 0.6 dollars per ton, or by 0.6%, and corn - by 5.2 dollars per ton, or by 4.5 %.

Export and stocks of grain crops

According to the Federal Customs Service of Russia, on October 25, in the current 2017-2018 agricultural season, 15,844 thousand tons of grain crops were exported amounting to 2,694 million US dollars. This is 26.7% higher than in the same period last season - 12,504 tons. The volume of wheat exports for the season was 12,250 thousand tons, with an increase of 20.7% over the same period of 2016/17 season, barley – 2,356 thousand tons, or 1.7 times more, corn – 1,149 thousand tons with an increase of 28.8%.

Average export price of soft wheat. As of October 26, Russian wheat of the 4 class, protein of 12.5% ​​(FOB Novorossiysk) - $ 193 / ton (-$2  per week), US wheat SRW (CPT Mexican Gulf) - $ 176 per ton (+$1 per week).

As of October 1, grain stocks in agricultural procuring and processing organizations without small farm forms amounted to 57.8 million tons, up 16.5% as of October 1, 2016. The volume of grain of the federal intervention fund as of October 27, 2017 amounted to 3,967.6 thousand tons in the amount of 36,471.4 million rubles.

Kazakhstan

Results of the harvesting campaign

The harvesting campaign in Kazakhstan came to an end almost by the middle of October. Small unharvested areas in Almaty, Kyzylorda and East Kazakhstan regions did allow summing up its results. The average yield on October 15 was 14.2 quintals of grain per hectare. By October 25, it rose to 14.4 q/ha and remained as the result index for the harvest-2017. Only by October 30 in Almaty region the last grain was removed from fields, and 100% indicators of threshing yield for all regions of the republic appeared in the reports of the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Despite some delay, the harvesting campaign this year ended much earlier than last season.

In the final information on harvesting of grain and leguminous crops on October 30, 2017, according to recent reports, 15,311.3 thousand hectares of harvesting areas were harvested in Kazakhstan and 22,094 thousand tons of grain was harvested with an average yield of 14.4 q/ha. Last year, on this date, 14,174.6 thousand hectares, or 92.7% of the total harvesting area, were harvested. Last year, 21,506.4 thousand tons were harvested at an average yield of 15.2 q/ha.

As in the previous year, the North-Kazakhstan region showed the largest indicators of threshing yield, in spite of the most significant reduction of acreage for cereals under the program of diversification of wheat crops among the regions of the grain belt. Here, at the end of October, 3,087.5 thousand hectares were threshed and 5,627.5 thousand tons of grain were received in the bunker weight. At the same time, the average grain yield increased by 17.8 to 18.2 quintals per hectare compared to the previous year.

The second place in terms of threshing yield was occupied by Kostanay region – 5,225.3 thousand tons were harvested from 4192.3 thousand hectares. However, the yield in this area this year was lower than in the previous season -13.3 q/ ha in 2016 and 12.5 q/ ha in 2017. The average yield also dropped in the Akmola region from 12.9 to 11.8 q/ ha. In total, it was threshed 4,324 thousand hectares; the harvest amounted to 5,123.9 thousand tons.

The highest yield of cereals in 2017, as well as in the past year, was in Kyzylorda region - 52.8 q/ha, Almaty - 29 q/ha and Zhambyl region - 26.4 q/ha. In all these regions, the yield increased compared with the last season. In three other regions – the South Kazakhstan, the North Kazakhstan and the West Kazakhstan - the grain yield was higher than the average across the republic. And the lowest yield indicator was fixed in Karaganda region - 10.1 q/ha.

Expert Forecasts

On October 26, a new report of the International Grains Council (IGC) was published. Small adjustments were made for consumption and exports in the past 2016-17 season. In the forecasts for the current season, changes in the grain balance were relatively small.

For 2016-17 MY with the opening stocks of 3.2 million tons, production was at the level of 19.4 million tons, imports - 0.1 million tons, the total seasonal balance was increased from 22.7 to 22.8 million tons, consumption was previously increased from 10.8 to 10.9 million tons. The export forecast was reduced from 8.3 to 8.2 million tons. The closing grain reserves will amount to 3.7 million tons.

In general, the data for grain almost did not change in the IGC forecast in 2017-18. Only the closing carryover stocks are reduced. The opening reserves will be at the level of 3.7 million tons, production has been reduced from 18 to 17.9 million tons of grain with its import of 0.1 million tons. The total annual balance has been reduced from 21.8 to 21.7 million tons. Domestic consumption for food, feed and industrial purposes has been reduced from 10.1 to 10 million tons, exports have increased from 8.1 to 8.2 million tons, and closing stocks have been reduced from 3.6 to 3.4 million tons.

Separately for wheat, the IGC forecast for Kazakhstan was not changed in October. In the 2016-17 season, the opening reserves will amount to 2.6 million tons, production - 15 million tons, imports - 0.1 million tons. The total wheat balance is projected at 17.7 million tons. Domestic consumption for food, feed and industrial purposes is 7.1 million tons. Wheat exports are projected at 7.4 million tons. The closing stocks will be about 3.2 million tons.

For the next 2017-18 season, the IGC forecast for wheat is the following: Kazakhstan will have the opening stocks of 3.2 million tons, production of 13.8 million tons, imports of 0.1 million tons. The total wheat balance will be at the level of 17.1 million tons. Domestic consumption for food, feed and industrial purposes is projected at 6.8 million tons. Wheat exports forecast was previously increased from 7.2 to 7.4 million tons, and closing stocks were reduced from 3.1 to 2.9 million tons.

Dynamics of grain stocks

In Kazakhstan, there has never been as much grain in the last 6 years as of October 1, as in 2017. As of October 1, 2017, the amount of grain in Kazakhstan was 3.4 million tons higher than in the previous year. According to the Statistics Agency of the Republic of Kazakhstan, as of September 1, 2017, 6,568,485 tons of grain were stored in the republic, and by October 1, 18,003,512 tons. As a result, in the course of domestic consumption, exports, the arrival of new grain, losses in the period from September 1 to October 1, grain reserves in Kazakhstan increased by 11,435,027 tons, or 2.75 times.

In August this year, experts expected a smaller crop of cereals than last year, at least for the reason of significantly reduced acreage under grain crops. "But, this does not mean anything yet, since a higher average yield of cereals is possible. Apparently, the grain of the new crop in Kazakhstan will be larger than it was previously thought," our agency wrote in August. Eventually, it turned out so. The combination of a higher crop with more bulky grain stocks at the beginning of mass harvesting have led to more significant grain reserves, as of October 1, compared to the previous year.

In September, grain reserves in Kazakhstan were replenished exponentially. The republic's grain balance had grown already in August due to the receipt of new grain from the southern, eastern and western regions. In August, grain reserves in Kazakhstan increased by 2,383,838 tons, or by 57%. But the real grain gross output came when the harvest campaign began in the largest grain areas of Kazakhstan. As a result of the rapid harvesting of grain crops, which was carried out in the main grain regions of Kazakhstan in the shortest time, in September, the bins of agricultural producers were filled with significant volumes of grain of the new crop in a relatively short period.

In September, the volume of food grain in Kazakhstan increased from 5,441,294 to 14,769,862 tons, by 9,328,568 tons, or 2.71 times, forage grain increased from 875,339 to 2,158,533, by 1,283,194 tons, or 2.47 times. Seed grain fund increased from 251,852 to 1,075,117 tons, by 823,265 tons, or 4.27 times.

In the context of individual crops, the increase in reserves was various. The amount of wheat grew by 9,570,938 tons, from 5,097,250 on September 1 to 14,668,188 on October 1, or 2.88 times; corn stocks increased by 55,683 tons, from 15,735 to 71,418 tons, or 4.54 times, and rice by 235,357 tons, from 39,462 tons up to 274,819, or 7.03 times.

Barley increased in volume by 1,282,447 tons, from 957,791 tons to 2,240,238 tons, or 2.34 times, rye by 3,139 tons, from 28,438 to 31,577 tons, or 111%, oats by 93443 tons, from 129,102 to 222,545 tons, or 172.4%.

Buckwheat reserves increased by 28,728 tons, from 21,975 to 50,703 tons, or 2.3 times, millet by 14,873 tons, from 9,551 to 24,424 tons, or 2.56 times, and the mix of grain crops by 42,339 tons, from 30,931 to 73,270 tons , or 2.37 times.

By October 1, during September grain volumes increased in all regions of Kazakhstan in different proportions, as well as in cities of republican subordination. The exception was only three regions - Zhambyl, Mangistau and the South-Kazakhstan regions. Here the main arrival of grain of a new crop was in August, and in September the quantity of grain decreased.

In Mangistau region grain is almost not grown, and the regional grain fund is formed due to supplies from other regions. Here, too, the amount of grain reduced. In addition to grain belt regions, the receipt of grain is higher in relative terms than the national average in Kyzylorda, Karaganda regions and city of Almaty, and in the remaining areas it is lower.

By October 1, during September in Akmola region, grain reserves increased by 3,459,458 tons, or 3.02 times with a share in the total grain balance of 28.7%, in Kostanay region by 3,160,730 tons, or 3.15 times with a share of 25.7%. In the North-Kazakhstan region, grain volume increased by 3,158,285 tons, or 2.99 times with a share in total reserves of 26.3%.

In total, the reserves in three areas increased by 9,778,473 tons, or 3.05 times, and reached 14,546,166 tons, or 80.7% of the total grain volume in the republic. In the farms and farm households, on October 1, was stored in the North-Kazakhstan region - 882,131 tons, in Kostanay - 106,876 tons and in Akmola - 644,803 tons.

Stock trading

In October, on the ETS, the number of grain deals, in relation to September, decreased almost 2 times, from 105 to 54, or 51.4%. There was less transactions for wheat, and especially for barley at the end of the period. Sales volume in commodity terms decreased 1.89 times, and in monetary terms 1.66 times. In total, from September 29 to October 27, 193,733 tons were sold for the amount of 10,445,220,739 tenge. In the wheat segment, for the first time this season, the object of transactions was wheat of 1 class and 2 class, and in total, 32 deals were made for wheat with sales of 159,308 tons worth 8,947,610,870 tenge. The barley accounted for 22 deals and it was sold 34,425 tons worth 1,497,609,869 tenge.

In September, the results of trading on the ETS significantly exceeded the figures for August. The number of grain deals increased 4.77 times. The sales volume in tons increased 5.83 times, and in the tenge equivalent - 5.41 times. In September there were 105 grain deals and it was sold 366,195 tons for the amount of 17,339,546,926 tenge. As in the previous month, the leader in the number of transactions was barley, and in terms of sales, wheat of 3 class and 4 class. Of the total volume, 52 deals were made for wheat in the amount of 185,221 tons for the value of 8,185,952,100 tenge, and 53 deals for barley in the volume of 180,974 tons for the sum of 9,153,594,826 tenge.

At the moment, the following domestic prices are formed:

***

Сurrently, you can buy wheat of 3 class from new harvest in Astana for 44,100 tenge per ton. First-rate flour in the capital of our country costs 81,000 tenge per ton. Second-rate flour is sold at 79,000 tenge per ton. Flour of extra-class costs 82,500 tenge per ton.

A ton of wheat of 3 class can be purchased for 44,200 tenge, wheat with gluten content above 27 percent – for 49,200 tenge per ton, barley of a 2 class now costs 40,500 tenge per ton in Akmola region. Flour of extra class costs 82,500 tenge, first- and second-rate flour is offered at 81,000 tenge and 79,000 tenge per ton, respectively.

In the North Kazakhstan region wheat of 3 class is sold by 41,800 tenge per ton, wheat with gluten content above 27 percent - by 45,400 tenge. The current price of barley is 39,000 tenge per ton. In the North Kazakhstan the price of flour of extra class is 78,500 tenge per ton; first-rate flour costs 70,000 tenge and second-rate flour costs 68,500 tenge per ton.

In Kostanay region the price of wheat of 3 class rose to the level of 42,600 tenge per ton. Wheat with gluten content above 27 percent is sold at 47,300 tenge. The price of barley of 2 class is 40,200 tenge per ton. The market price of flour of all classes went down: extra class – to 80,300 tenge per ton, first-rate – to 78,800 tenge and second-rate flour to 76,800 tenge per ton.

In Pavlodar region the price of wheat of 3 class is 43,700 tenge per ton. The price of barley is 40,200 tenge per ton. Flour of extra class costs 81,500 tenge per ton, first-rate flour costs 80,000 tenge per ton, second-rate flour costs 78,00 tenge per ton.

In Karaganda region wheat of 3 class costs 43,500 tenge per ton, wheat with gluten content above 27 percent costs 48,200 tenge per ton. The price of barley is 41,000 tenge per ton. In Karaganda, traders sell flour of all rates at the following prices: first-rate – 80,300 tenge per ton, second-rate –78,300 tenge per ton and extra class –81,800 tenge per ton.

Wheat prices grew in the East and west Kazakhstan regions over the past period. In the East Kazakhstan region of the country the price of wheat of 3 class fixed at 40,700 tenge per ton, barley – 41,300 tenge per ton. In the West of the country wheat of 3 class costs 45,200 tenge. The cost of first-rate flour in East Kazakhstan is 83,600 tenge per ton, second-rate flour costs 81,700 tenge, per ton, and flour of extra class – 85,100 tenge per ton. In the West Kazakhstan prices for flour are as follows: extra class costs 84,200 tenge, first-rate –82,700 tenge, second-rate-80,700 tenge, respectively.

In Almaty region the price of wheat of 3 class for today is offered by 49,200 tenge per ton. Barley of 2 class is sold at 42,700 tenge per ton. The cost of flour of extra class in this region is 86,000 tenge per ton, first-rate – 84,500 tenge per ton, second-rate – 82,500 tenge per ton.

In Zhambyl region the price of wheat of 3 class for today costs 48,800 tenge per ton, barley of 2 class is sold by 42,800 tenge per ton. The cost of flour of extra class in this region is 87,100 tenge per ton, first-rate –85,600 tenge per ton, second-rate – 83,600 tenge per ton.

In the South Kazakhstan region wheat of 3 class is offered by 50,900 tenge per ton, barley – by 41,500 tenge per ton. The cost of flour of extra class in this region is 88,800 tenge per ton, first-rate – 87,300 tenge per ton, second-rate –85,300 tenge per ton.

In Aktobe region wheat of 3 class is offered by 48,300 tenge per ton. Flour of extra class can be purchased for 86,200 per ton, first-rate – 84,700 tenge per ton, second-rate – 82,700 tenge per ton.

In Kyzylorda region wheat of 3 class is sold currently at 50,500 tenge per ton. The cost of flour of extra class is 86,900 tenge per ton, first-rate – 85,400 tenge per ton and second-rate – 83,400 tenge per ton.

In the south capital, Almaty, you can buy wheat of 3 class by 49,200 tenge per ton. Flour of extra class costs in Almaty 86,000 tenge per ton, first-rate – 84,500, and second-rate – 82,500 tenge per ton, respectively.

Export

The cost of wheat of 3 class with gluten content of 23 percent on DAP terms at the station Lugovaya (Kazakhstan – Kyrgyzstan) is $148-153 per ton, with gluten content of 27-30 percent - $155-160 per ton. Barley costs $159-164 per ton. Flour of extra class is sold at $264-269; the cost of first-rate flour is $240-245 and the second-rate -$ 215-220 per ton.

At the elevators of the South Ural railway the current cost of wheat of 3 class is $131-135 per ton, wheat with gluten content above 27 percent - $136-141. The price of barley there is $140-145 per ton. Flour of extra class can be bought by $256-261; first-rate flour is $232-236 and the second-rate - $207-212 per ton, respectively.

At the station Sary-Agash (Kazakhstan – Uzbekistan, DAP) wheat of 3 class costs $154-159, wheat with gluten content above 27-30 percent – $160-165. The price of barley there is $163-168. Flour of extra class can be bought by $267-272, first-rate flour is $243-248 and the second-rate -$219-224 per ton.

At the station Tobol (DAP) wheat of 3 class costs $140-145 wheat with gluten content above 27-30 percent – $146-151. Barley is sold by $152-157 per ton. Flour of extra class can be bought by $265-270, first-rate flour is $237-242 and the second-rate -$214-219 per ton.

The average price of wheat of 3 class at the station Hajraton (Uzbekistan – Tajikistan, CPT) is $214-219 per ton; wheat with gluten content above 27-30 percent is sold at $223-228 per ton. Barley can be bought by $228-234 per ton. Flour of extra class is offered by $325-330, first-rate flour is $303-308 and the second-rate - $278-283 per ton.

In the port of Aktau on FOB conditions wheat is sold at $157-162, wheat with gluten content above 27-30 percent is sold at $164-169, barley - $170-175. Flour of extra class is sold at $282-286, first-rate flour – by $257-262 and second-rate - by $234-239 per ton.

Reference: $1 = 341.97 tenge; 1 euro = 401.58 tenge; 1 ruble = 5.86 tenge

Alimbek Gabitov

 




 

 

Copyright © 2008-2017, News Agency "Kazakh-Zerno",registered in the Ministry of Culture and Information of Kazakhstan,certificate number 10093-IA by 08.05.2009. All materials posted on the portal www.kazakh-zerno.kz, are protected in accordance with the laws of Kazakhstan.Use of materials of www.kazakh-zerno.kz is allowed when there is a reference (for internet publications - hyperlinks) on News Agency "Kazakh-Zerno".