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Kazakh Zerno - News and analysis of cereals

Kazakh Zerno - News and analysis of cereals
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Export prices of cereals and flour in dollars per ton, including VAT 0% (Franco-border) on 29.03.2018 PDF Print E-mail

Station name

wheat 3 class, gluten

wheat 4 class

wheat 5 class

barley

flour

terms of supply

23-24%

27-30%

-

2 class

extra class

first-rate

second-rate

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Sale

Petropavlovsk (South-Ural Railway)

127-132

132-137

97-102

-

143-148

253-258

229-234

204-209

DAP

Sary-agash

149-154

155-160

129-134

-

166-171

264-269

240-245

216-221

DAP

Lugovaya

142-147

149-154

113-118

-

162-167

261-266

237-242

212-217

DAP

Tobol

136-141

142-147

108-113

-

155-160

262-267

234-239

211-216

DAP

port of Aktau

153-158

160-165

134-139

-

173-178

279-284

254-259

231-236

FOB

Bekabad

164-169

171-176

134-139

-

185-190

289-294

264-269

251-246

СРТ

Hajraton

209-214

218-223

181-186

-

231-237

322-327

310-315

275-280

СРТ

Kudukli

220-225

225-230

189-194

-

236-241

329-334

305-310

281-286

СРТ

Sarahs

187-192

200-205

164-169

-

193-198

293-298

267-272

263-268

DAP

New programs of the Ministry of Agriculture leave the Kazakhstani peasants with the old plow

Новость на Казах-зерно:

The AIC of Kazakhstan, having a solid development potential, can not realize it fully due to the lack of sufficient investments to maintain itself at a competitive level and optimize its operations. The shortage of ordinary cut paper does not allow the peasants to translate their plans into reality. It is sold, but expensive. Not everyone can afford to buy it. And how will we make a qualitative leap that the agricultural sector has to do. The government recalls this on the basis of the January Address of the President. But nobody canceled the money, and they are needed to implement these plans. But even the current issues related to the forthcoming sowing campaign are difficult to solve in the absence of funds and in the presence of huge debt obligations. We need to update the machinery, buy quality seeds, do not forget about fertilizers, fuels and lubricants and take care of people who give their work to the earth. How to ensure this all at once and fully, and not go bankrupt, becomes the main issue for the peasants, the expert of the IA “Kazakh-Zerno” noted.

The Ministry of Agriculture made plans for the forthcoming sowing campaign. The idea of further diversification of sown areas remains at the bottom of the agenda due to the reduction of wheat areas in the direction of increasing the wedge for forage grains and other crops for livestock production with the prospect of export of its products. Again in the plans is an increase in the oilseed crops. But the regional departments fix in some regions a deficit of quality seeds for sowing perspective forage grains and oilseeds. Take, for example, barley, the most popular fodder crop in Kazakhstan, Russia, and now in the world, thanks to the explosive demand for it from the countries of the Middle East. That is why barley for a short time ahead of the world prices of wheat and became a favorite of the market. But in Kazakhstan, according to statistics, as of March 1 barley for seeds this year is less than in the past for this period. Moreover, its volumes decreased relative to February. What shall we put in the earth?

World market

The first month of the coming year brought the strengthening of the urgent wheat market, although it was largely due to the fall of the dollar to the euro and the pound for January to the minimum annual values, and to the ruble to the March indices of the previous year. In February, wheat quotations continued to grow in France, and especially at an accelerated pace in the United States. Only in Britain quotations fell by several tenths of a percent. Together with wheat, corn, soybeans and rapeseed prices in the USA and Europe increased sharply. In late February, a set of unfavorable conditions for a new wheat crop in the US, coupled with speculative factors, created conditions for a strong upward movement of US futures, which largely led to the growth of world wheat positions.

During the February period, the dollar strengthened to the euro and pound. This to some extent delayed the growth of French wheat in American denomination, and British wheat dropped into negative territory. The USDA February report raised the forecast for world wheat production, but the consumption level was further increased, leaving the remainder at the end of the season to sink. Given the slight increase in the forecast for world trade, this has become a positive signal for the wheat market.

Expert forecasts

In the February report of the International Grain Council (IGC) of February 22, the forecast of world grain production in 2017 - 18 season was reduced by 6 million tons, from 2,100 to 2,094 million tons. This is less than the record of last year in 2140 million tons. Consumption remained the same - 2104 million tons, and the level of trade increased by 1 million tons, from 360 to 361 million tons. The forecast of final grain reserves was reduced from 617 to 610 million tons.

World wheat balance forecast for the current season remained the same for most indicators, except consumption. Here the decrease by 1 million tons - from 744 to 743 million tons. In the January report, the forecasts were positive for production - growth from 749 to 757 million tons, on consumption from 742 to 744 million tons and on final reserves from 249 to 254 million tons, but neutral for trade - 174 million tons.

The forecast for corn production in February for the 2017-18 season according to the IGC was 1048 million tons, consumption of 1068 million tons, trade of 148 million tons, and the final balance of 314 million tons.

In the February forecast of the USDA of the world grain balance, the outlook was relatively positive for the world markets, although it has not yet fully manifested itself. Compared with the previous report, cereal stocks were reduced.

In the USDA forecast, the wheat yield is increased by 0.24 million tons from the January estimate and the gross harvest is 757.25 million tons. Last year, 750.44 million tons. Consumption increased by 3.1 million tons from January to 744.79 million tons, up 5.41 million tons from the previous year. Final stocks will grow to a record 265.1 million tons. Last season, 252.64 million tons, in January - 268.02. The harvest of Russia remained 85 million tons, but exports were raised to 36 million tons, in January there were 35. There is a small plus of the Argentine harvest to 18 million tons.

In the forecast of the corn balance, the production movement started to decrease against the growth of consumption upwards, and the reserves were further reduced. USDA predicts a decline in the world corn crop in 2017-18 to 1041.73 million tons. Consumption will grow to 1068.41 million tons. Final stocks will be reduced to 203.1 million tons.

Price development

In early February, wheat quotations repeated the trajectory of the previous period. In Europe, they declined, and in the US they strengthened. In the American continent, wheat fell at the beginning of the week, but on Tuesday and Wednesday it gained weight rapidly, and in the last two days again declined. As a result, quotes remained in positive territory. European wheat was pushed down by the pound gaining and the euro dollar. Over the week, he climbed to the pound from 0.7019 to 0.7167 pound / dollar and to the euro from 0.7984 to 0.8147 euro / dollar. This became a noticeable factor in the weakening of European quotations in the American equivalent. Corn and soy in Chicago strengthened their positions, as well as rapeseed and corn in Paris.

The week from 9 to 16 February brought new trends in the urgent wheat market. Wheat quotes in the US turned down, after uncertainty on Friday. In Europe, wheat has changed insignificantly and in different directions. In Britain quotations have grown, in France, the nearest March contracts have strengthened, and the May contracts have declined. On the currency market on February 6, the dollar rose to euro and pound, having pressed the values of European wheat in its denomination down. In London, wheat quotations were down 0.1%, in Paris they rose by 0.2%, and in Chicago fell by 1.8%. Corn in the US fell by 1.5%, and soybean by 1.1%. Rape in Paris fell, and corn rose.

Wheat prices in Europe, and especially in the US, have solidified. Prices upward drove falling to the euro and pound in mid-February dollar. The American equivalent "broke loose" and has already reached the euro to the lower values since 2014. Most of the growth in European quotations from 9 to 16 February was provided by the fall of the dollar. For example, British wheat in its currency even decreased by 0.4%, and in dollar denomer it increased by 0.8%. For the same reason, including, the quotations of wheat, corn and soybeans in the United States have grown at a faster rate.

Another factor of growth can be considered unfavorable weather conditions in the US and South America and increased export sales of wheat from the American continent the day before. In the February forecast of USDA, the world wheat crop increased from the January estimate from 757.01 to 757.25 million tons against 750.44 million tons last year. Consumption increased from 741.7 to 744.79 million tons, up 5.41 million tons from the previous year. Final stocks were reduced from 268.42 to 265.1 million tons. The level of trade increased from 182,914 to 183,589 million tons.

Quotations of wheat from February 16 to 23 in the US and Britain, in contrast to the previous period, were in the opposite direction and declined. Quotes in France, despite fluctuations during the week, remained at the same level. In the foreign exchange market, everything was also vice versa. The dollar rose to the pound and the euro almost all week and significantly adjusted the values of European wheat down in its equivalent. The new IGC report was almost neutral to the past for wheat, and in general for grain, negative for production and final stocks.

In late February, wheat quotes in the US rose in high proportion. Almost the whole week they were breaking up and on Thursday they broke into the cost of $ 5 per bushel abroad. Only at the end of the week the quotes rolled back, but with significant weekly growth. In Europe, the situation with wheat prices was contradictory. In Britain, quotations rose by more than a percent, while in France they dropped slightly. The lower dynamics of European wheat was due, to a certain extent, to the exchange rate. In the foreign exchange market over the period, the dollar strengthened to the pound in a larger, and to the euro to a lesser extent, reducing the value of grain from Europe in its equivalent.

Recall, in January, from December 29 to February 2, wheat quotations in London rose by 6.4 dollars per ton, or 3.5%, in Paris by 5.3 dollars per ton, or 2.8%, and in Chicago by 4.3 dollars, or by 2.7%. Corn in the US rose by 4.2 dollars per ton, or 3%, and soybean by 6.3 dollars per ton, or 1.8%. Rapeseed in Paris fell by 4.5 euros per ton, or 1.3%, while corn rose by 0.25 euros per ton, or 0.2%.

From February 2 to March 2, wheat quotations in London fell by $ 0.5 per ton, or by 0.3%, in Paris increased by $ 4 per ton, or 2%, and in Chicago by $ 19.6, or on 11,9%. Corn in the US rose by 9.4 dollars per ton, or 6.6%, and soybean by 33.9 dollars per ton, or 9.4%. Rape in Paris rose by 8.75 euros per ton, or 2.5%, and corn by 3.75 euros per ton, or 2.5%.

Cash market of agricultural crops

February was marked by a significant increase in available wheat, barley, corn and soy. Recall that by early March in the last week of February, the cash prices for wheat, barley, corn and soybean on the sites of Eurasia and America increased everywhere. But for a full February, growth is even more significant.

Following the strengthening of the urgent world market, cash prices for agricultural commodities increased on the export basis of FOB. Recall, in February wheat quotations continued to grow in France, and especially at an accelerated pace in the US. Together with wheat, corn, soybeans and rapeseed prices in the USA and Europe increased sharply. In late February, a set of unfavorable conditions for a new wheat crop in the US, coupled with speculative factors, created conditions for a strong upward movement of US futures, which largely led to the growth of world wheat positions.

In the most significant dynamics rose wheat SRW and HRW in the US. French and Russian wheat has risen slightly in different proportions, and their price difference is small. Barley is at higher price positions than wheat.

From February 2 to March 2, soft wheat SRW based on FOB from ports in the US rose by $ 29, from 194 to $ 223 per ton. Wheat HRW with a protein content of 11% increased by $ 29, from $ 218 to $ 247 per ton. High-protein wheat - 14% increased by 12 dollars, from 284 to 296 dollars per ton. Corn in US ports climbed 16.6 dollars, from 166.8 to 183.4 dollars per ton.

French wheat in the port of Rouen from February 2 to March 2 rose by 7 dollars, from 201 to 208 dollars per ton. Barley grew by 14 dollars, from 201 to 215 dollars per ton. Russian wheat in the Black Sea ports increased by $ 9, from 198 to 207 dollars per ton. Russian barley on the basis of the Black Sea grew 18 dollars, from 198 to 216 dollars per ton, and corn added 12 dollars, from 176 to 188 dollars per ton.

Soybean from the USA on FOB basis grew by 32 dollars per ton, from 375 to 407 dollars per ton, and from Argentina by 54 dollars, from 361 to 415 dollars per ton.

In January, wheat, barley, corn and soybean rose in the ports of America and Eurasia in FOB agricultural markets. The exception was high-protein wheat from the US, which lost several dollars.

Russia

In February, Russian wheat, barley and corn strengthened growth dynamics. The current season, with its record harvest, coupled with previous good grain harvest, has strengthened Russia's position among the world's top grain producers, primarily wheat. And the growing export of wheat led Russia to the world leaders in the export of this crop. But in the same season, lowered prices in the domestic market to the minimum. But, nevertheless, export demand gradually corrected the price situation in a positive direction, certainly not in all regions and not so fast.

Seed supply

As of February 5, 2018, there were 5,686.7 thousand tons of seeds of spring cereals and leguminous crops nationwide, with a requirement of 5,786.7 thousand tons. Certified seeds of these crops in the total volume of the tested amount to 79.2 percent, which is 0.1percent higher than in the previous year.

Current situation for spring field works

At present, spring and field work is continuing in the Southern and North Caucasian federal districts. Separate regions of the Far Eastern Federal District started to sow.

As of March 26, 2018, 2.9 million hectares (in 2017 - 6.5 million hectares), or 17% of the sowing area of winter cereals, were fed by the Russian Federation as a whole. Including in the Southern Federal District - 2.0 million hectares, or 32.4% of the sowing area, in the North Caucasus Federal District - 0.9 million hectares, or 39.3% of the sown area. In the Krasnodar Territory and the Republic of Adygea, a second feeding of winter cereals is carried out.

Spring sowing in the whole country was carried out on an area of 175.7 thousand hectares, or 0.3% to the forecast (in 2017 - 679.6 thousand hectares).

Sowing in the regions

In the Southern Federal District, spring sowing was carried out on an area of 148.4 thousand hectares, or 2.4% to the forecast (in 2017 - 489.7 thousand hectares). In the North Caucasus Federal District - 26.5 thousand hectares, or 1.4% of the forecast (in 2017 - 181.9 thousand hectares). In the Krasnodar Territory, sowing sugar beet (factory), all planted 1,5 thousand hectares (in 2017 - 9,4 thousand hectares). In the Krasnodar Territory and the Republic of Crimea, the sowing of early vegetables and the planting of potatoes continue. To the sowing of vegetables the economy of the Republic of Ingushetia was launched, and the potato planting - Astrakhan Region.

As a whole, 0.9 thousand hectares of vegetables were sown in agricultural enterprises (0.3% to the forecast), 3.2 thousand hectares of potatoes were planted (1.8% to the forecast).

Winter crops

According to the management of the agro-industrial complex of the subjects of the Russian Federation, the area of winter grain crops for the harvest of 2018 as a whole for the Russian Federation is 17.1 million hectares (in 2017 - 17.4 million hectares). The sowing of winter crops was complicated by unfavorable weather and climatic conditions.

Expert forecasts

In the February report, the International Grain Council (IGC) in 2017 - 18 season for Russia changed some indicators of grain balance and wheat separately. In March, the changes were also insignificant, except for exports, which changed to a greater extent. With initial reserves of 13.1 million tons, the production forecast was increased from 127.1 to 127.5 million tons. Import has not changed - 0.5 million tons, the total annual grain volume has been increased from 140.7 to 141 million tons, consumption has been reduced from 75.8 to 75.6 million tons, and exports increased from 44.1 to 46, 4 million tons. The carry-over balances at the end of the season were reduced from 20.7 to 19.1 million tons.

Separately for wheat IGC for Russia left many items of the balance at the same level, but increased the forecast for exports by reducing the level of final stocks. With the initial reserves of the season of 10.5 million tons, the forecast for wheat production is 84.9 million tons, while imports remained at 0.3 million tons. The total annual balance of wheat is 95.8 million tons. Exports rose from 34 to 36.3 million tons. Final stocks of the season decreased from 17.3 to 15.7 million tons.

The January USDA report for the 2017-18 season left Russia's harvest at 85 million tons, but raised exports to 36 million tons, in January it was 35 million tons.

Price situation in February

February gave a higher growth dynamics for 3 and 4 grade food wheat, barley and corn, than in January. Food rye has risen almost to the same extent, and the increase in feed wheat has slowed somewhat. An important incentive for further recovery of grain crops in Russia was a favorable situation on the world market. Quotations of wheat in the futures market and cash prices for wheat, barley and corn increased significantly, especially at the end of February. Mostly on the American platform. At the currency market in February, the ruble slightly fell against the dollar, and this depressingly affected the pricing of Russian grain crops in the American equivalent. In this denomination, grain has grown during a period in less dynamics.

The first third of February showed a moderate increase in the main grain crops, but in less dynamics. Only food rye sticks on the ground. In the wheat segment, wheat of the 4th class most of all added, it also became the leader of growth throughout the grain spectrum, as the most popular crop in the export market. Fodder wheat, barley and corn rose almost at the same level, while wheat of grade 3 rose to the least extent. In the dollar equivalent, Russian cereals sagged due to the negative movement of the ruble against the dollar during this period, with the lowest level in 2018 as of February 10 at the level of 58.17 rubles per dollar.

From 9 to 16 February, grain crops in Russia continued to strengthen. In the wheat food segment increased the growth of wheat grade 3, but declined in grade 4. Among cornmeal corn, maize has become the growth leader, which previously behaved relatively modestly. Barley grew to a lesser extent, but remains the first in the price level in the top three wheat for fodder-corn-barley. During the period in higher dynamics, the price indicators in the American equivalent rose, as during this time the dollar practically fell to the ruble, in other terms as to the euro and pound.

From 16 to 23 February cereals moved in the same growth trend, except for food rye, which remained at the same level, and in the past period it rose very slightly. But grains in the wheat group increased the degree of price growth. But barley was especially prominent, adding more than 200 rubles to the previous level. Such outpacing growth is largely due to the export demand for this crop. The average price of barley for the same period on the FOB export base in the Black Sea ports increased by $ 9 from $ 203 to $ 212 per ton. Corn, unlike wheat and barley, did not rise as cheerfully as a week earlier. This time, the ruble / dollar exchange rate dynamics influenced the pricing somewhat depressingly in the American equivalent, as for the period the dollar slightly grew to the ruble from 56.5918 to 56.7608 rubles per dollar.

By the first of March, Russian cereals, with some exceptions, slowed down growth. This became noticeable in almost all cultures, except for food rye, which after a long standstill increased significantly, becoming the leader of growth among other cultures. In the wheat segment, the 3rd class reduced the growth almost threefold, and 4 classes and fodder wheat, and even more so. Barley added less than last week, and the growth of corn stopped altogether. However, in the American nominal for the period February 23 to March 2, cereals added to the higher dynamics due to the growth of the ruble / dollar rate.

From February 2 to March 2, in Russia, grade 3 wheat rose by 310 rubles per ton, or by 3.6%, wheat of grade 4 by 320 rubles per ton, or by 4.4%, and forage wheat by 310 rubles per ton , or 5%. Food rye rose by 145 rubles per ton, or by 2.6%, barley by 420 rubles per ton, or by 6%, and corn by 385 rubles per ton, or by 5.7%.

From February 2 to March 2, in the American equivalent, grade 3 wheat increased by 3.8 dollars, or 2.5%, wheat grade 4 by 4.3 dollars per ton, or 2.4%, forage wheat by 4.2% dollar per tonne, or by 3.8%. Food rye rose by 1.5 dollars per ton, or 1.5%, barley by 6.1 dollars per ton, or 4.9%, and corn - by 5.4 dollars per ton, or by 4.5 %.

International trade

According to the FCS of Russia, on March 14, 36.4 million tons of grain were exported, which is 39% more than in the same period last season (26.2 million tons).

Wheat exports since the beginning of the agricultural season amounted to about 28.4 million tons, which is 41% higher than in the same period last year. Barley exports reached 4.2 million tons, 1.9 times higher than in the same period last year. Corn exported about 3.6 million tons, which is 1% lower than the level of the same period last season.

Exports of other crops reached 248 thousand tons, which is 44% higher than the same period last season.

Kazakhstan

Preparation for the sowing campaign-2018

In Kazakhstan, plans for the forthcoming sowing campaign are presented. The first vice-minister of agriculture Arman Evniev told about it at the meeting of the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan in his report "On the progress of preparations for the spring field works of 2018".

Sown areas in 2018 will be more than 21.8 million hectares, which is approximately the same as last year. Cereals will be located on an area of 14.7 million hectares, among which the main grain wheat will occupy 11.4 million hectares. In comparison with last year, the area under wheat will be reduced by 544 thousand hectares. But at the same time to ensure the growing needs of livestock, the crop of forage crops will increase by 16%. Grain-fodder crops such as barley, oats, corn, peas, chickpeas will occupy more than 2.5 million hectares with growth to the level of the last year by 49 thousand hectares, or 2%. Oilseeds for the first time will exceed the bar of 2.5 million hectares and amount to about 2.6 million hectares. Positive growth dynamics is shown by the area allocated for potatoes, 210 thousand hectares, or 15% to the level of the previous year.

Under the harvest of the current year, 2.6 million tons of seeds are covered, "the vice minister said. As of January 1, 2018, there are 142,600 tractors, 3,700 high productive sowing complexes, 82,500 seeders, and 297,0 thousand tillage tools. According to the akimats of the regions, as of March 1, the availability of tractors is 87% for the spring-field work of the current year, 100% for seeding complexes, 87% for seeders and 88% for tillage tools.

In the current year the demand of agrarians of the republic in diesel fuel for spring field works is 375.0 thousand tons. Together with the Ministry of Energy approved the schedule of diesel fuel supply to the regions for the period February - June. The Ministry of Energy set the price at 130 tenge / liter (156,0 thousand tenge / ton) from the refinery, taking into account the delivery of operators, the average price in the regions will be 146 tenge / liter, which is 13% cheaper than the market price (petrol station - 165 tenge / liter) . In 2018 agricultural producers declared 446.0 thousand tons of fertilizers, including 270.1 thousand tons during the spring-field work from March to May. The main share is fertilizers produced by domestic production of Kazphosphate LLP and KazAzot LLP - 78% or 333.4 thousand tons of fertilizers, - Arman Evniev informed the meeting participants.

Expert forecasts

In the report of the International Grains Council (IGC) for March for the 2017-18 season, the grain production indicators, its overall seasonal balance and consumption level were adjusted upwards. But export forecasts are lower. As a result, the final stocks of the current season will increase significantly. With initial grain reserves of 3.7 million tons, production increased from 17.9 to 19.3 million tons, imports remained the same - 0.1 million tons, and the total grain balance increased from 21.7 to 23 million tons. tons. Total consumption for food, feed and technical purposes increased from 10 to 10.7 million tons, exports decreased from 8.2 to 8.1 million tons, and final stocks rose from 3.5 to 4.1 million tons.

A similar situation is observed in adjusting the indicators separately for wheat, but the export of this crop has not changed. With an initial wheat stock of 3.2 million tons, production increased from 13.8 to 14.8 million tons, imports 0.1 million tons, the total wheat balance grew from 17 to 18 million tons. Consumption for food, feed and technical purposes increased from 6.8 to 7.3 million tons, exports remained at 7.3 million tons, and final stocks increased from 3 to 3.5 million tons.

Grain stocks

As of February 1, 2018, the reserves of grain and leguminous crops in the Republic of Kazakhstan amounted to 14.207 million tons. The loss was 1966228 tons with a decrease to the volumes of a month ago by 12.2%.

To the greatest extent in January, forage grains fell, its volume decreased by a fifth from the indicators of the beginning of the month. In January, the volume of food grain in Kazakhstan decreased from 12250128 to 10709154 tons, for 1540974 tons, or by 12.6%, forage grain decreased from 2230340 to 1773751 tons, by 456589 tons, or by 21.5%. Seed grain fund increased from 1693540 to 1724874 tons, by 31334 tons, or by 1.9%.

In January, not all types of grain reduced their reserves. The exception was buckwheat, the volume of which for a month became more than 40%. Over the past month, the amount of buckwheat has also increased, but to a much lesser extent - only 2.6%. It is not excluded that this culture was imported from Russia, where this year overproduction of buckwheat and low attractive price. In addition to buckwheat, the volume of rye has almost doubled. This time the highest relative decline in barley, a month earlier, maize was more melted. In a higher proportion than the average for the republic, again fell in the volume of rice.

Recall, in January, grain volumes, which went to food, production and feed consumption in the country and exports, increased both in absolute and relative to the previous month indicators. With the growth of grain volumes on seeds. Wheat and barley are used more in absolute amounts.

For individual crops. Wheat decreased by 1468440 tons, or 88.7%, from 13045855 as of January 1 to 11 577 415 tons as of February 1, corn fell in volume by 18586 tons, or 86%, from 132487 to 113901 tons, rice dropped in weight at 42176 tons tons, or 84.7%, from 275474 to 233298 tons.

Barley decreased by 370859 tons, or 80.5%, from 1901788 to 1530929 tons, rye increased by 25397 tons, or 196.3%, from 26373 to 51770 tons, oats decreased 26785 tons, or 87.6%, from 217294 to 190,509 tons.

Buckwheat increased by 39136 tons, or 141.9%, from 93354 to 132490 tons, and millet was reduced by 2319 tons, or 89.3%, from 21620 to 19301 tons. Mixtures of spicules decreased by 44,811 tons, or 62.4%, from 119295 to 74484 tons.

The balance of cereals in Kazakhstan continues to be at a higher level than last season. As of February 1, 2018, the reserves of grain and leguminous crops in the Republic of Kazakhstan amounted to 14207779 tons. For the same period of the last year, according to the Statistics Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan, there were 13119083 tons of grain in the farms of Kazakhstan. The difference in favor of the current year was 1088,696 tons, or 8.3%.

But this year in January, it still declined, both in absolute and relative terms. At the beginning of this year, the difference was at the level of 1354978 tons, or 9.1%. In 2017, as of January 1, there were 14819029 tons of grain in the republic, and in 2010, 16174007 tons. In December 2017, it was 1073169 tons, or 6.5%.

The seasonal stocks were also able to reduce, including thanks to the increased grain exports in January. The volume of grain exports from Kazakhstan in January 2018 again increased and exceeded the level of grain shipment last month and exports last January. According to the Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan, according to the data of KTZ JSC for grain shipment for export, in January 2018 for export from Kazakhstan 830 thousand tons of grain were sent without its equivalent in flour. Last December, 790,300 tons of grain were exported from the republic. As a result, exports for the month increased by 39.7 thousand tons, or by 5%.

Nevertheless, this year grain reserves are higher than in the last six years for the period of February 1. In 2013, it was stored in Kazakhstan 12408677 tons, and in 2018, 14207779 tons, more at 1799102 tons, or 14.5%. As of January 1, 2013 and 2018, the difference was 2510217 tons, or 18.4%.

Exchange trade

In February, from February 2 to March 2, 17 grain deals took place in the section of agricultural products of the UTS in the mode of classical trade. This month, deals were less by 2.41 times than in January. There were no deals, like last month, for barley and for wheat of the 4th class. All transactions related to wheat of grade 3. The volume of grain sales decreased by 1.56 times in the commodity mass and by 1.5 times in monetary terms.

Totally, for the period 98746 tons of wheat of the third class for the amount of 4462022000 tenge were sold. More than half of the grain was sold on the export basis of DAP or 55,000 tons to the amount of 2562690000 tenge as a result of five transactions. On the EXW basis, 12 deals were made with the sale of 43746 tons of wheat to the amount of 1899332000 tenge.

At the moment, the following domestic prices are formed:

***

Сurrently, you can buy wheat of 3 class from new harvest in Astana for 42,800 tenge per ton. First-rate flour in the capital of our country costs 79,000 tenge per ton. Second-rate flour is sold at 77,000 tenge per ton. Flour of extra-class costs 80,500 tenge per ton.

A ton of wheat of 3 class can be purchased for 42,900 tenge, wheat with gluten content above 27 percent – for 47,900 tenge per ton, barley of a 2 class now costs 39,600 tenge per ton in Akmola region. Flour of extra class costs 80,500 tenge, first- and second-rate flour is offered at 79,000 tenge and 77,000 tenge per ton, respectively.

In the North Kazakhstan region wheat of 3 class is sold by 40,500 tenge per ton, wheat with gluten content above 27 percent - by 44,100 tenge. The current price of barley is 38,100 tenge per ton. In the North Kazakhstan the price of flour of extra class is 76,500 tenge per ton; first-rate flour costs 74,500 tenge and second-rate flour costs 72,500 tenge per ton.

In Kostanay region the price of wheat of 3 class rose to the level of 41,300 tenge per ton. Wheat with gluten content above 27 percent is sold at 45,900 tenge. The price of barley of 2 class is 39,300 tenge per ton. The market price of flour of all classes went down: extra class – to 78,300 tenge per ton, first-rate – to 76,800 tenge and second-rate flour to 74,800 tenge per ton.

In Pavlodar region the price of wheat of 3 class is 42,500 tenge per ton. The price of barley is 39,300 tenge per ton. Flour of extra class costs 79,500 tenge per ton, first-rate flour costs 78,000 tenge per ton, second-rate flour costs 76,000 tenge per ton.

In Karaganda region wheat of 3 class costs 42,200 tenge per ton, wheat with gluten content above 27 percent costs 45,900 tenge per ton. The price of barley is 40,100 tenge per ton. In Karaganda, traders sell flour of all rates at the following prices: first-rate – 78,300 tenge per ton, second-rate –76,300 tenge per ton and extra class –79,800 tenge per ton.

Wheat prices grew in the East and west Kazakhstan regions over the past period. In the East Kazakhstan region of the country the price of wheat of 3 class fixed at 39,400 tenge per ton, barley – 40,600 tenge per ton. In the West of the country wheat of 3 class costs 43,900 tenge. The cost of first-rate flour in East Kazakhstan is 81,600 tenge per ton, second-rate flour costs 79,700 tenge, per ton, and flour of extra class – 83,100 tenge per ton. In the West Kazakhstan prices for flour are as follows: extra class costs 82,200 tenge, first-rate –80,700 tenge, second-rate-78,700 tenge, respectively.

In Almaty region the price of wheat of 3 class for today is offered by 48,900 tenge per ton. Barley of 2 class is sold at 42,000 tenge per ton. The cost of flour of extra class in this region is 84,500 tenge per ton, first-rate – 83,000 tenge per ton, second-rate – 81,000 tenge per ton.

In Zhambyl region the price of wheat of 3 class for today costs 48,500 tenge per ton, barley of 2 class is sold by 42,100 tenge per ton. The cost of flour of extra class in this region is 85,600 tenge per ton, first-rate –84,100 tenge per ton, second-rate – 82,100 tenge per ton.

In the South Kazakhstan region wheat of 3 class is offered by 50,600 tenge per ton, barley – by 40,800 tenge per ton. The cost of flour of extra class in this region is 87,300 tenge per ton, first-rate – 85,800 tenge per ton, second-rate –83,800 tenge per ton.

In Aktobe region wheat of 3 class is offered by 48,000 tenge per ton. Flour of extra class can be purchased for 84,700 per ton, first-rate – 83,200 tenge per ton, second-rate – 81,200 tenge per ton.

In Kyzylorda region wheat of 3 class is sold currently at 50,200 tenge per ton. The cost of flour of extra class is 85,400 tenge per ton, first-rate – 83,900 tenge per ton and second-rate – 81,900 tenge per ton.

In the south capital, Almaty, you can buy wheat of 3 class by 48,900 tenge per ton. Flour of extra class costs in Almaty 84,500 tenge per ton, first-rate – 83,000, and second-rate – 81,000 tenge per ton, respectively.

Export

The cost of wheat of 3 class with gluten content of 23 percent on DAP terms at the station Lugovaya (Kazakhstan – Kyrgyzstan) is $142-147per ton, with gluten content of 27-30 percent - $149-154 per ton. Barley costs $162-167 per ton. Flour of extra class is sold at $261-266; the cost of first-rate flour is $237-242 and the second-rate -$ 212-217 per ton.

At the elevators of the South Ural railway the current cost of wheat of 3 class is $127-132 per ton, wheat with gluten content above 27 percent - $132-137. The price of barley there is $143-148 per ton. Flour of extra class can be bought by $253-258; first-rate flour is $229-234 and the second-rate - $204-209 per ton, respectively.

At the station Sary-Agash (Kazakhstan – Uzbekistan, DAP) wheat of 3 class costs $149-154, wheat with gluten content above 27-30 percent – $155-160. The price of barley there is $166-171. Flour of extra class can be bought by $264-269, first-rate flour is $240-245 and the second-rate -$216-221 per ton.

At the station Tobol (DAP) wheat of 3 class costs $136-141, wheat with gluten content above 27-30 percent – $142-147. Barley is sold by $155-160 per ton. Flour of extra class can be bought by $262-267, first-rate flour is $234-239 and the second-rate -$211-216 per ton.

The average price of wheat of 3 class at the station Hajraton (Uzbekistan – Tajikistan, CPT) is $209-214 per ton; wheat with gluten content above 27-30 percent is sold at $218-223 per ton. Barley can be bought by $231-237 per ton. Flour of extra class is offered by $322-327, first-rate flour is $310-315 and the second-rate - $275-280 per ton.

In the port of Aktau on FOB conditions wheat is sold at $153-158, wheat with gluten content above 27-30 percent is sold at $160-165, barley - $173-178. Flour of extra class is sold at $279-284, first-rate flour – by $254-259 and second-rate - by $231-236 per ton.

Reference: $1 = 319.02 tenge; 1 euro = 395.71 tenge; 1 ruble = 5.53 tenge

Alimbek Gabitov

 




 

 

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